This month, we wrote about the Fear of Missing out, FOMO. In my mind, this is a very real motivation of why people should be making moves. I want to discuss another fear this week, but the converse: Why are people not making moves? The first six months of this year, to say the least, have been very interesting for hiring in Public Finance. For the first time in many years, the number of new hires I have had the opportunity to assist is lower than in previous years. Talking to my clients, they feel the same way as well, especially in the Bond Counsel market. If I had to choose one word to summarize the first six months of this year, it would be disruption.
The Effects of Disruption
We’ve seen disruption with major players on the banking side exiting the industry altogether, disruption with interest rates on the rise (thus causing projects that were to be financed to be put on the back burner), and disruptions with the number of junior bankers usually hired because the large players who left the industry took their junior bankers with them. These are only a few of the main disruptions that have affected the Public Finance arena. So why the title Fear of the Unknown for this blog? The answer is when there is disruption, there is always less movement in hiring. Let’s examine this specifically in relation to the Bond Counsel world.
A Lack of New Blood
If we look at Bond Counsels, it is clearly an ageing field. The amount of grey hair that is still in the industry is significant. I have gotten so many calls from Bond Counsel firms, saying they are concerned that the aging bond counsel will eventually leave the industry and that there is not the next level of lateral partners ready to fill that void. The reason is that the number of new bond counselors has dwindled over the last few years. The new attorneys coming out of law school will not be public finance professionals as they have been in the past. Thus, there is not enough “new blood” to be trained. The lateral partners potentially available to move are not moving because of Fear of the Unknown; they prefer to think they are very content with where they are, even if they are not. Interest rates have caused a lack of hiring because Bond Counsels that have projects that are sitting on the back shelf due to not penciling out are starting once again to look like they may.
The Waiting Game
A Bond Counsel who has projects that currently may not be financeable, does not want to move to a new home for fear that the projects they have waited so long to become viable would not move with them to a new firm. With interest rates rumored to be dropping in September, these projects are going to be back, and they do not want to move them to a new firm potentially. The exit of two major players, and now the projected purchase of another player, has “spooked people into staying longer at their current firm. If the big boys are exiting, and they went to a new firm where the commitment level to public finance is not personally known, they could find themselves out of a position after leaving their current employer. Let me state here that the firms we represent have made a total commitment to the industry, or we will not represent them. However, this concern is a real concern among some bond counsels. Fear of the unknown is a factor when deciding to entertain a move, but fear of the unknown should be viewed as exciting; disruptions break patterns and complacency – so take that next call as you never know what you don’t know – and that could yield exponential results.
Conclusion
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About Harlan Friedman, JD & Founding Member, H. Friedman Search LLC. Harlan is a thirty-year veteran Public Finance Banker turned recruiter who specializes in the placement of all levels Public Finance Bankers, Healthcare Bankers, Municipal Advisors, Compliance Officers, Issuers, and Bond Counsels.